Bagmati and Gandaki Growth to Stay Above National Estimate
Bagmati and Gandaki provinces are projected to record economic growth above the national annual estimate in Fiscal Year 2082/83, according to the preliminary province-wise gross domestic product estimate released by the National Statistics Office Nepal.
The annual growth rate of national gross domestic product at consumer prices, measured at constant prices, is preliminarily estimated at 3.85 percent.
Among the provinces, Bagmati is expected to post the highest growth rate at 5.40 percent, followed by Gandaki at 5.01 percent.
Madhesh Province is projected to record the lowest annual growth rate at 1.31 percent. Sudurpaschim is estimated to grow by 3.28 percent, Koshi by 3.13 percent, Karnali by 2.94 percent, and Lumbini by 2.87 percent.
Although Madhesh appears weak in terms of economic growth, it is expected to rank fourth in national annual GDP at consumer prices. Bagmati remains in first place on this measure as well.
In the current fiscal year, national annual GDP at consumer prices is estimated at Rs. 6.6 trillion.
Bagmati Province is projected to contribute Rs. 2.423 trillion, or 36.7 percent. Koshi Province is estimated to contribute Rs. 1.043 trillion, or 15.8 percent; Lumbini Province Rs. 937 billion, or 14.2 percent; Madhesh Province Rs. 863 billion, or 13.1 percent; Gandaki Province Rs. 593 billion, or 9.0 percent; Sudurpaschim Province Rs. 464 billion, or 7.0 percent; and Karnali Province Rs. 277 billion, or 4.2 percent.
In both FY 2081/82 and FY 2082/83, per capita GDP is estimated to be highest in Bagmati Province and lowest in Madhesh Province.
For FY 2082/83, per capita GDP in US dollars is preliminarily estimated at:
Bagmati Province: USD 2,644
Gandaki Province: USD 1,651
Koshi Province: USD 1,410
Lumbini Province: USD 1,208
Sudurpaschim Province: USD 1,170
Karnali Province: USD 1,108
Madhesh Province: USD 934
At the national level, per capita GDP for the current fiscal year is preliminarily estimated at USD 1,513. Based on this, the National Statistics Office has stated that all provinces except Bagmati and Gandaki have per capita GDP below the national average.
Provincial Sectoral Contribution and Growth Rate
In FY 2082/83, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are expected to make the largest contribution to Koshi Province’s GDP at 32.5 percent. Administrative and support services will have the smallest share at 0.3 percent.
By industrial classification, gross value added in Koshi is projected to grow fastest in electricity and gas at 23.76 percent. Water supply, sewerage, and waste management is expected to record the lowest growth at 0.39 percent.
In Madhesh Province, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are expected to contribute the largest share of GDP at 34.97 percent. Mining and quarrying will contribute the least at 0.14 percent.
By industrial classification, electricity and gas is projected to record the highest annual growth in gross value added at 10.91 percent, while agriculture is estimated to post the lowest growth at 1.26 percent.
In Bagmati Province, wholesale and retail trade is expected to contribute the largest share of GDP at 21.7 percent. Water supply and waste management will have the smallest share at 0.3 percent.
By industrial classification, electricity and gas is estimated to record the highest annual growth in gross value added at 22.8 percent. Public administration and defence is expected to record the lowest growth at 0.61 percent.
In Gandaki Province, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are preliminarily estimated to make the largest contribution to GDP at 25.7 percent. Administrative and support services will have the smallest share at 0.3 percent.
By industrial classification, electricity and gas is projected to record the highest annual growth in gross value added at 23.9 percent. Public administration and defence is expected to record the lowest growth at 0.65 percent.
In Lumbini Province, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are expected to contribute the largest share of GDP at 29.8 percent. Administrative and support services will have the smallest share at 0.45 percent.
By industrial classification, electricity and gas is estimated to post the highest annual growth in gross value added at 9.18 percent. Public administration and defence is expected to record the lowest growth at 0.19 percent.
In Karnali Province, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are projected to contribute the largest share of GDP at 31.52 percent. Mining and quarrying will contribute the least at 0.15 percent.
By industrial classification, financial and insurance services are expected to record the highest annual growth in gross value added at 6.54 percent. Public services and defence is estimated to record the lowest growth at 0.05 percent.
In Sudurpaschim Province, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries are estimated to contribute the largest share of GDP at 33.45 percent. Administrative and support services will have the smallest share at 0.1 percent.
By industrial classification, financial and insurance services are projected to record the highest annual growth in gross value added at 7.98 percent. Public services and defence is expected to record the lowest growth at 0.18 percent.
