Nobel Literature Prize: Analysts’ Favorites and Outlook
Experts have named Swiss postmodernist novelist Christian Kracht, Australia’s Gerald Murnane, and Alexis Wright as leading favorites for this year’s Nobel Prize in Literature, on the eve of the Swedish Academy’s much-anticipated Thursday announcement.
Last Year’s Breakthrough
Last year, the Academy made history by declaring South Korea’s Han Kang the winner. She became the first Asian woman to receive the prize. This year, however, experts predict the winner may be male and that the focus could return to a European author. According to Sveriges Radio culture critic Lina Kalmteg, because a non-European woman was honored last year, the Academy may choose a European man this time.
Other Strongly Tipped European Authors
Alongside Kracht, Hungary’s László Krasznahorkai and Péter Nádas, as well as Romania’s Mircea CÄrtÄrescu, are also considered possible winners. The 58-year-old German-language writer Kracht has earned high regard in literary circles for works that explore pop culture and consumerism.
A Signal from the Gothenburg Book Fair
Dagens Nyheter culture editor Björn Wiman notes that Swedish Academy members were seated in the front row listening to Kracht at the Gothenburg Book Fair, which is usually a strong signal. He cites a similar situation in 2004 when Austrian playwright Elfriede Jelinek won the prize.
From “Unimaginable” to “Plausible”
The Nobel Prize in Literature has been awarded since 1901, with Western male authors long dominant. Of 121 laureates, only 18 have been women, and very few have written in Asian or Middle Eastern languages. No author writing in an African language has yet received the prize.
Post-2018 Changes and Diversity Pledges
Following the 2018 MeToo scandal, the Academy was reorganized. It pledged to increase geographic and linguistic diversity, resulting in more visible gender balance in recent years. Since 2018, women have been announced as winners in alternating years.
Language Expectations This Year
According to Wiman, authors like Han Kang were “unimaginable” a few years ago but are now “plausible.” Even so, he sees a possibility this year for a writer in the Anglo-Saxon, German, or French languages. Kalmteg adds that because last year’s winner was a woman and non-European, the pattern could reverse to a European man.
Frequently Discussed Names
Because the committee’s deliberations remain confidential for 50 years, precise predictions are difficult. Regularly discussed writers include Canada’s Anne Carson, Chile’s Raúl Zurita, India’s Amitav Ghosh, and Argentina’s César Aira. Peru’s Mario Vargas Llosa was the last South American winner in 2010, and authors from that region have since been overlooked. Kalmteg also mentions Mexican writer Cristina Rivera Garza as a possible candidate.
Why Murnane and Wright Are Strong Contenders
The Academy often brings less globally known yet influential writers to wider attention. For that reason, Australia’s Gerald Murnane and Indigenous author Alexis Wright are also strong contenders. Born in Melbourne in 1939, Murnane describes his works as “literary fiction based on the contents of my mind.” His debut, “Tamarisk Row” (1974), portrays family life, religion, and childhood struggles.
Critical Reception of “The Plains”
Murnane’s celebrated novel “The Plains” (1982) has been described by The New Yorker as a “strange masterpiece” that “feels more like a dream than a book.” Sweden’s SvD literary critic Josefin de Gregorio joked, “The question is—does he answer the phone? I don’t even know if he has a phone,” noting that he has never left Australia, lives in a rural area, and is highly reclusive. She added that she hopes he wins so readers worldwide can discover his remarkable writing.
Prize Amount and Announcement Time
This year’s Nobel Literature laureate will receive 1.2 million US dollars. The announcement will be made on 9th October 2025, Thursday at 1:00 pm (1100 GMT).
